【导读】伊朗总统大选结果615日揭晓,温和保守派候选人、前首席核谈判代表哈桑·鲁哈尼赢得选举。鲁哈尼属于温和保守派。他主张务实的政治和经济政策,与各方均保持着较为良好的关系。

 

Persian power
波斯帝国


Can Iran be stopped?
伊朗之势可挡否?


The West should intervene in Syria for many reasons. One is to stem the rise of Persian power

西方国家应该介入叙利亚,理由有很多,其中之一就是要遏制波斯帝国崛起



Jun 22nd 2013 |From the print edition

IN 2009Iranwas on the verge of electing a reformer as president. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, subverted the vote and crushed the ensuing protests. Last week the same desire for change handed a landslide victory to Hassan Rohani—and Mr Khamenei hailed it as a triumph.

2009年,伊朗即将选出一名改革派总统的时候,最高精神领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊推翻了选举结果,并镇压了随之而来的游行示威。上周,对变革的相同渴望把压倒性的胜利送给了哈桑·鲁哈尼。这一次,哈梅内伊把大选视为一次胜利。



When a country has seen as much repression asIran, outsiders hoping for a better future for the place instinctively want to celebrate along with all those ordinary Iranians who took to the streets. The smiling Mr Rohani's public pronouncements encourage optimism, for he sounds like a different sort of president from the comedy-villain, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who precedes him. Yet even if his election bodes well for Iranians, it does not necessarily hold equal promise for the rest of the world.Iran's regional assertiveness and its nuclear capacity mean that it is a more dangerous place than it ever was before.

伊朗这个国家曾经历了如此多的压制,就连希望看到该国未来变得更好的外人,也本能地想跟走上街头的普通伊朗人一道庆祝。鲁哈尼笑逐颜开,他的公开声明令人乐观振奋。因为,听上去,鲁哈尼不同于前任总统,搞笑的恶棍穆罕默德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德。然而,就算鲁哈尼当选对伊朗人是好消息,这并不意味着世界其他地方就能对此有同样的期望。伊朗在地区事务的强硬以及其核能力意味着,这是一个比以前更加危险的国家。

家。

The case for Qompromise
库姆妥协的教训


Given the country's obvious weaknesses, that sounds implausible. Inflation is running at over 30%, and the economy shrinking. Inequality is growing, with 40% of Iranians thought to be living below the poverty line. Sanctions restricted May's oil exports to just 700,000 barrels a day, a third of what they used to be; as a result there are shortages of basic goods and growing unemployment caused by factory closures.

考虑到伊朗明显不强的国力,这种说法听上去似乎难以置信。伊朗的通货膨胀率超过30%,经济日益萎缩,社会差距不断加大,据称有40%的伊朗人生活在贫困线以下。制裁的限制使五月份原油出口仅为每日700,000桶,仅为原有水平的三分之一。这些现象的结果就是,基本生活物品短缺,工厂关闭导致失业率日益上升。



Yet the Persian lion has not lost its claws, nor has the theocracy suddenly become a democracy. Mr Rohani was indeed the most reformist of the candidates on offer at the election, but in much the way that Churchill was more of a teetotaller than George Brown. The 64-year-old cleric has been a loyal servant of the Islamic Republic from its inception. For years he headed the national security council (see article). He is constrained by a system that deemed just eight people fit to stand in the recent election and rejected 678 others (including a former president). The president's power is limited byIran's other institutions, many of which are in conservative hands.

 

不过,波斯雄狮并未失掉爪牙,神权统治也不可能突然变成民主。在本次大选中,鲁哈尼确实是候选人中最具改革精神的一位,但是,这就跟丘吉尔是比乔治·布朗更坚决的禁酒主义者一样。鲁哈尼这名64岁的神职人员从一开始就是这个伊斯兰共和国的忠仆。他执掌国家安全委员会多年(另见文)。他受到国家体制的限制。这种体制在本次选举中仅仅给予8个人候选人资格,拒绝了其他678人(包括一名前总统)。伊朗总统的权利受到其他机构的限制,而这些机构中有许多掌握在保守派手中。



WhileIran's politics have probably changed less than Mr Rohani's election suggests, the balance of power betweenIran and the rest of the world has been shifting inIran's favour for two reasons. First, thanks to heavy investment in nuclear capacity by the mullahs, and despite attempts by the West andIsrael to delay or sabotage the nuclear programme,Iran will soon be able to produce a bomb's worth of weapons-grade uranium in a matter of weeks (see briefing).Iran has installed more than 9,000 new centrifuges in less than two years, more than doubling its enrichment capability. It is a short step from the 20% enriched uranium that the country's facilities are already producing at an increasing rate to conversion into the fissile material needed for an implosion device. Although Western intelligence agencies think Iran is still at least a year away from being able to construct such a weapon, some experts believe that it could do so within a few months if it chose to—and that the time it would take is shrinking.

虽然鲁哈尼当选并不说明伊朗政治会有多大的改变,但伊朗与他国的力量平衡已经在向有利于伊朗的一侧倾斜,原因有两点:第一,由于伊朗的毛拉们已经为核计划投入了大量资金,尽管西方国家和以色列试图延缓或破坏伊朗的核计划,伊朗还是很快就能获得在数周内生产出足以制造一枚核弹的武器级浓缩铀的能力(另见文)。伊朗在不到两年间就安装了超过9,000台离心机,铀浓缩能力提高了两倍多。从提炼浓度20%的浓缩铀到生产核爆装置仅仅有一步之遥,伊朗的核设施向生产核爆装置所需浓度迈进的速度已是越来越快。尽管西方情报部门认为伊朗离获得生产核武器能力至少还有一年之久,一些专家却认为伊朗如果想这么做,能在几个月之内拥有核武器,而且这一时间还在缩短。

 

This makes a nonsense of Western policy onIran. Round after round of negotiations to try to persuadeIrannot to get a bomb have been backed up by the implicit threat that armed force would be used if talks failed. But now it looks as thoughIranwill soon be in a position to build a weapon swiftly and surreptitiously. Should the West decide to use force,Irancould amass a small arsenal by the time support for a military strike was rallied.

这就使西方国家的对伊朗政策显得没有意义。之前举行了一轮又一轮谈判,想要说服伊朗放弃制造核武器,在谈判中,西方国家还加上了含蓄的威胁,如果谈判失败,就要动用武力。但现在看来,伊朗很快就能够迅速并不被察觉地造出核武了。如果西方国家决定动武,伊朗能够在西方发动军事打击之前就凑出一座小型核武库。



Against that background, a friendlier president becomes a trap as well as an opportunity. He may offer the chance of building better relations through engagement and the gradual lifting of sanctions. ButIran could take advantage of this inevitably slow process to build a weapon.

在这种背景下,一名更好说的总统极可能是机会,也可能是陷阱。他可能会给通过沟通和逐渐解除制裁改善关系一个机会。但这必定是一个缓慢的过程,伊朗可能会借此良机生产出核弹。



The other development that threatens the West's interests is happening aroundIran. Despite its economic troubles, the Iranian state is a powerful beast compared with its neighbours, and is keen to assert itself abroad. The Iraqi government is now its ally. It has sway over chunks ofLebanon through Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia it finances. And it has sent Hizbullah intoSyria, where its fighters have joined Iranian advisers, money and special forces to help turn the tide of the war in Bashar Assad's favour. Ostensibly the reason why Barack Obama agreed last week to arm the rebels in Syria (see article) was Mr Assad's use of chemical weapons; but many believe that the greater reason was his reluctance to see Mr Assad hold on to power as a client of Iran's.

西方利益的另一种威胁是伊朗周边局势的发展。尽管经济上困境重重,伊朗比起邻国而言依然是强大的猛兽,而且很重视在周边国家施加影响。伊拉克政府现在是伊朗的同盟。伊朗通过对真主党的资金支持,能影响黎巴嫩大部分地区。伊朗还把真主党部队派往叙利亚,跟伊朗顾问、资金以及特种部队合流,帮助巴沙尔·阿萨德扭转战局。奥巴马总统上周同意向叙利亚反对派提供武器(另见文),表明上看是因为阿萨德使用了化学武器,但许多人士认为,奥巴马此举背后更重要的原因是他不愿看到阿萨德作为伊朗的代理人掌权。



Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
抱最好的希望,作最坏的打算


This analysis may be too gloomy. It is possible that Mr Rohani's arrival heralds a more pragmatic and less aggressive position. The new president used to serve asIran's main nuclear negotiator, and during his campaign made clear the link betweenIran's economic weakness and the nuclear sanctions, and called for better relations with the West. The West should reciprocate, making it clear that it has no intention of impedingIran's peaceful development. At the same time, it should continue to push for progress on the nuclear negotiations.

以上分析也许过于悲观。鲁哈尼上台也许会把伊朗引向更加务实,不那么强硬的立场。新总统曾是伊朗的首席核谈代表,在竞选时,他明确表示伊朗的经济困境跟核制裁有关,呼吁跟西方国家改善关系。西方国家应该投桃报李,表明自己无意抑制伊朗的和平发展。同时,西方还应继续推动核谈进程。



But it must do so warily. Any deal offered toIran should include restraints draconian enough, and inspection intrusive enough, to prevent it from building a weapon surreptitiously, otherwise it would be worse than not doing a deal at all. And such a deal would very likely be unacceptable toIran.

但西方要谨慎行事。任何开个伊朗的协议都应该包括严格的限制以及彻底的核查,以防止伊朗偷偷制造核武器,否则,就会比根本没有协议还要更糟。而对伊朗而言,这样的一份协议很可能是无法接受的。


The growing risk of a nuclearIran is one reason why the West should intervene decisively inSyria not just by arming the rebels, but also by establishing a no-fly zone. That would deprive Mr Assad of his most effective weapon—bombs dropped from planes—and allow the rebels to establish military bases insideSyria. This newspaper has argued many times for doing so on humanitarian grounds; but Iran's growing clout is another reason to intervene, for it is not in the West's interest that a state that sponsors terrorism and rejects Israel's right to exist should become the regional hegemon.

因为伊朗拥有核武器的威胁越来越大,西方应该坚决介入叙利亚事务,不仅仅是为反对派提供武器,还要设立禁飞区。这可以使阿萨德手中最有效的武器——飞机轰炸——无效化,也可以帮助反对派在叙利亚境内建立军事基地。本报曾多次基于人道主义理由呼吁这种做法,但伊朗势头日盛也是介入叙利亚局势的另一个原因。因为,让一个支持恐怖主义而且拒绝承认以色列的国家成为地区霸主并不符合西方的利益。



The West still has the economic and military clout to influence events in the region, and an interest in doing so. When Persian power is on the rise, it is not the time to back away from theMiddle East.

西方国家在经济上和军事上都有能力影响这一地区的事务,而且施加这种影响也符合西方的利益。在波斯帝国势力日长之时,现在还不是离开中东的时候。



原文选自《经济学人》杂志  译者:王力鹏
   

【注释】

        1.     Persian power:波斯是以前希腊人对伊朗及阿富汗高原一带的称呼,而波斯帝国是古代伊朗高原地区以古波斯人为中心形成的奴隶制帝国
        2.     the mullahs:毛拉,伊斯兰国家尤其是中亚和印巴次大陆将知识分子、学者尊称为“毛拉”,通常指伊斯兰学者,相当于汉语的“先生”。
        3.     20% enriched uranium:浓度20%的浓缩铀,20%的浓缩铀已经可以完成核爆反应,伊朗浓缩铀已经过了20%的坎,理论上来说已经可以造原子弹,但还没有进行核爆,是典型的核门坎国家